Declining unemployment and the Tholos forum

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Declining unemployment and the Tholos forum
October 12, 2023 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/12/551076/declining-unemployment-and-the-tholos-forum/

There were a number of positive economic stories in the Philippines recently as reported in BusinessWorld: “AMRO sees PHL as fastest-growing economy in the region” (Oct. 5), “Marcos removes cap on rice prices” (Oct. 5), “Philippine manufacturing output peaks in August” (Oct. 6), “Jobless rate dips to 3-month low in August” (Oct. 6), “NAIA 9-month passenger traffic surpasses 2022 full-year tally” (Oct. 8), “‘Much better’ growth seen in 2nd half” (Oct. 9), “IMF still sees PHL as one of region’s strongest economies this year” (Oct. 11), “FDI net inflows jump to 3-month high in July” (Oct. 11).

So, despite the Philippines’ slowing GDP growth and high inflation rates in the second and third quarters of 2023, the unemployment rate went down to 4.4% in August. Then the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stayed above 50. The PMI is an indicator of whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers.

I checked the data for the ASEAN-5 on unemployment rates and manufacturing PMI over the last three years. All five countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam — showed declining unemployment, which is good. But when looking at the manufacturing PMI, only Indonesia and the Philippines had an index above 50 as of September. The other three countries have seen declining PMI, below 50, especially Thailand and Malaysia (see Table 1).

Congrats to the economic team, particularly Secretaries Benjamin Diokno of the Finance department, Amenah Pangandaman of the Budget and Management department, and Arsenio Balisacan of the National Economic and Development Authority, for leading the positive business outlook of the country....

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